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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.